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Welcome ...  to the 2010 Time Series Forecasting Grand Competition for Computational Intelligence

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We seek to evaluate the accuracy of computational intelligence (CI) methods in time series forecasting, extending the earlier NN3 & NN5 competitions unto a new set of data of multiple frequencies. We seek to determine progress in modelling CI for forecasting & to disseminate knowledge on “best practices” across time series of different frequencies. To facilitate and knowledge exchange, the competition will be run in 3 separate tournaments of 6 months each. In each tournament one, two or more of the 6 datasets of 11 time series each with a particular time frequency must be forecasted. To extend the task across the year, the datasets in each tournament round will be released sequentially 2 at a time. The contestants will use a consistent methodology within each tournament, but will be allowed to change their methodology between tournaments.

Previous Runs
We have launched the competition after a trial run on a subset of time series and data frequencies at 2009 IJCNN. No test data has ever been disclosed.

The prediction competition is open to all methods of computational intelligence, incl. feed-forward and recurrent neural networks, fuzzy predictors, evolutionary & genetic algorithms, decision & regression tress, support vector regression, hybrid approaches etc. used in all areas of forecasting, prediction & time series analysis. We also welcome submission of statistical methods as benchmarks, but they are not eligible to "win" the NN GC.

Dissemination & Publication of Results
All those submitting predictions will be invited to participate in sessions at the 2010 International Joint Conference of Neural Networks IJCNN, Barcelona, Spain and addition conferences to be announced soon. Each workshop will provide awards by dataset for students and non-students. We are currently not seeking for a journal special issue for accepted submissions, but this may follow in the next year. 

Thanks to Isabelle Guyon, Clopinet USA, for her idea of conducting a 'Grand Challenge' of a competition - this is not it, but it aims to extend the reliability of results beyond those competitions run before. Also thanks to other researchers for the idea of conducting multiple small staged competition runs similar to a sports tournament.

The competition is conducted purely for academic purposes and should not be exploited commercially.

Forecasting Problem
Forecast one, two or more datasets of a selection of 6 datasets (each containing 11 time series) on transportation data as accurately as possible, using methods from computational intelligence and applying a consistent methodology. The data consists of 6 datasets with 11 time series with different time frequencies, including yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily and hourly transportation data (see series examples in that order below) :

Transportation is considered as a prerequisite to economy prosperity, mobility and wellbeing in a civilised world, in addition to providing one of the largest service sectors worldwide. Forecasting time series of transportation demand and flows, including airline, rail and car passenger traffic, provides a number of challenges: data may be measured at different time frequencies. Depending on the time frequency, the data may contain a number of time series patterns including none to multiple overlying seasonality, local trends, structural breaks, outliers, zero and missing values etc. These are often driven by a combination of unknown and unobserved causal forces driven by the underlying yearly calendar, such as reoccurring seasonal periods, bank holidays, or special events of different length and magnitude of impact, with different lead and lag effects.

Dates & deadlines

14. January 2010 Relaunch of competition - release of the complete dataset - Start of the 2010 competition session!
Individual deadlines 7 February 2010 Deadline for full paper submission to WCCI'10 / IJCNN'10 (extended, passed)
  1 March 2010 Deadline for abstract submission to ISF'10
  18-23 July 2010 WCCI'10 & IJCNN'10 Competition Workshop, Barcelona, Spain
  18-23 July 2010 WCCI'10 & IJCNN'10 Competition Workshop, Barcelona, Spain


For data & results of previous competitions click logo above!



Latest News

NNGC1 Data released
The NNGC1 data for all time series has been released!
NNGC1 competition start
The 2010 NNG forecasting competition website is live to provide instructions.
WCCI sessions approved
The NNGC1 competition has a special session approved for the IEEE WCCI'10 including the IJCNN'10, IEEE CEC'10 and FUZZ-IEEE'10 conferences in Barcelona, Spain for July 18-21, 2010 [more].
ISF sessions approved
The NNGC1 competition has a special session approved for the International Symposium on Forecasting ISF'10 in San Diego, USA, for
June 20-23, 2010 [more].


Important Dates

14 January 2010
Start of the 1st NN Grand Competition in time series forecasting with CI & NN 
February & March 2010
Submission deadline for abstracts for WCCI and ISF conferences
7 June 2010
Submission deadline for predictions of 1 or more datasets (each 11 series)
18-21 July 2010
NN GC1 competition special session at the WCCI'10 conference in Barcelona, Spain



Sven F. Crone

Lancaster University Management School
Centre for Forecasting
United Kingdom

sven dot crone at neural-forecasting dot com
forthcoming 2009
forthcoming 2010

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last update: 18.02.2010